Why Your Daily Coffee Costs What It Does, And How People Are Reacting

Coffee prices, like the prices of most things, are rising across the United States, and economic data shows people are feeling it.

Today, the national median price for a regular brewed coffee sits around $3.50. Tariffs, climate, and other logistics all hit coffee roasters months before customers ever see a price change. Understanding those forces makes the changes at your favorite local specialty coffee cafe easier to understand.

Below, is a breakdown of the numbers to help make sense of what is happening with coffee prices, following them all the way from the coffee farms to the coffee mug in your kitchen.

What factors into the cost of your cup of coffee 

In all, farmers, processors, importers, roasters, and your local specialty coffee cafe all shape the final price. Here’s how.

• Weather is shrinking harvests as a result of climate change. 
• Tariffs raised import costs. 
• Global markets set the base price of green coffee beans. 
• Finally, the roasting, packaging, shipping, labor, rent, and production equipment all add to what you pay for your drink.

As of late 2025, the average retail price for a pound of ground roast coffee in the U.S. is about $9.14. 

Surprisingly, the coffee prices that have risen the fastest this year were not the premium ones. Less premium coffee, such as generic and grocery store-brand bags, are tied more closely to the commodity market (the global trading system that sets baseline prices for bulk green coffee) and have seen the highest increases. When this market moves, these coffees move with it, often quickly.

The forces at play behind 2025 price spikes

How much have coffee prices risen, exactly? Well, coffee prices have grown by roughly 21%, year over year, as reported by CNN, based on Consumer Price Index data. That’s the largest increase of any item tracked by the federal government.

A combination of factors led to pricing surges and abrupt pricing changes in 2025. These include a mix of global and economic pressure that made the coffee market, among others, feel unpredictable. 

Brazil, the largest coffee producing country in the world, has been impacted by drought and a significant tariff on its exports to the United States. That single change shifted the landscape. 

Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have made it so lower priced coffees have become some of the most expensive options. Global coffee inventories have stayed tight too, which has added even more economic tension. And the commodity market has been hovering at unusually high levels for months, creating steady pressure on green coffee costs. 

For example, arabica hovered between $3.50-$4.50 per pound for much of the year, some of the highest levels the industry has seen in over a decade. (Shipping costs and logistical issues complicated things even further.)

And besides higher prices, another dimension of tariffs that is impacting the industry is its effect on planning.

Roasters usually contract coffee months in advance, but sudden policy changes can push prices up before those contracts take effect. When that happens, they often have to buy coffee on the spot, meaning they purchase it immediately at current market prices rather than through a pre-negotiated contract. Spot coffee almost always costs more because it reflects today’s supply, demand, and any added tariffs or delays.

All of these pressures happen before the coffee reaches a roaster like Talitha, which means businesses are absorbing volatility long before the final product reaches the customer.

How coffee prices are impacting the behaviors of coffee drinkers in the US

Even with rising costs, people still seem to care deeply about good coffee, as their habits are shifting a little, but the commitment is not going anywhere. 

Our data shows that people still value good coffee, even in a higher cost environment. In a recent survey of coffee drinkers, affordability ranked as the number one factor when choosing a coffee shop, with 37% of respondents selected it above anything else.

We asked our customers about what they’re willing to pay for their coffee and what they would give up to make sure their cup is full. Here’s what they said: 

• More than half of coffee drinkers said their limit for a cup is $6-$8

• Only about 1% are willing to pay $12 or more

• Nearly 1 in 4 would choose coffee over streaming or cable

Greg Peters, VP of Talitha Coffee, echoes these findings on commitment. “Eight of (Talitha’s) nine cafes grew revenue year over year; grocery partners are moving more bags of coffee; customers are not trading down to lower quality coffee, (and) if anything, they are becoming more thoughtful about where they spend, and what they buy.”

Another trend is that home brewing is also on the rise, yet not in a way that replaces cafe visits. “Some days they brew at home to save, and other days they still want their latte or pour over from the cafe down the street,” continues Peters. “Customer behavior is more intentional, not a pullback.”

Here’s how to save money on coffee (without sacrificing quality)

Here are practical ways to stretch your coffee budget without losing quality.

• Brew at home on certain days. A home brewed cup using Talitha Coffee beans costs $1.06, on average.

• Choose drip instead of milk based or espresso based drinks. Brewing at home a few days a week can save around $450 a year.

• Buy whole beans instead of single serve pods. Swapping two lattes a week for home brew can save more than $600 annually.

• Bring a reusable mug when possible. That small change can save another $60 a year depending on habits. 

• Learn to read labels to identify good value. Origin, process, roast date, and quality level all tell you whether you’re getting good value for the price.

Consumers want smart options that let them enjoy coffee without overspending, and these small shifts make room for both.

Looking at the future

No one can know the exact path of future coffee prices. 

Tariffs, weather patterns in major growing regions, inventory levels, and global demand will play major roles in 2026. Coffee is likely to remain in an unpredictable period, though data suggests specialty coffee remains resilient; quality will continue to matter.